were manufactured by SMIC/Huawei instead of TSMC. Manufactured in ML China instead of in TW. 10 mil units sales in 6 months, let's say they take 10 months to fabricate those chips starting in May 2023, the capacity would be 1 mil 7 nm chip per month.If the sales expectation of Mate 60 Pro is 30 mil, and all the combined sales of Nova 12, Pocket 2, P70, Shine series this year are equivalent to another 20-30 mil, this would mean up to 50-60 mil 7 nm chip would be manufactured by SMIC/Huawei, 50-60 mil chip lost opportunity for TSMC.
And it's not just lost opportunity if substantial portion of these 50-60 mil are sales taken away from Huawei's competitors including Apple, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi. Let's say half of these 50-60 mil sales are lost sales from Huawei competitors, TSMC will lost 25-30 mil chip order, not limiting to 7 nm, probably lost more 5 and 3 nm chip order than 7 nm order. Same impact to Qualcomm.
This also means this year the China domestic production capacity of 7 nm chip has to ramp up to 2-3 mil per month.
Some are saying it's Huawei's own production line that are manufacturing the chips. If so, Huawei's revenue from chip production would be sizable and could help to propel it as a chip manufacturing power house. If not, then it would go to SMIC revenue. It could also be higher end chip (<=7 nm) are manufactured by SMIC while lower end chip (>=14 nm) are manufactured by Huawel line for their own telecommunication equipment and other chips such as CMOS chip, RF chips etc.
Huawei's revenue in 2023 is said to have totally recovered at 700 bil Yuan, or nearly USD 100 bil. This year you can expect Huawei to grow revenue.
