Taking lessons from the Ukraine war, the US and Australia have teamed up to crank up the production of precision-guided munitions and artillery rounds in preparation for a possible conflict with China.

This week, defense resource Janes reported that the US and Australia have agreed to strengthen cooperation on the latter’s efforts to develop and produce precision-guided munitions locally under an agreement announced in late July at the 33rd Australia-US Ministerial Consultations (AUSMIN) held in Brisbane.

Citing a joint statement from late July, Janes reports that the US and Australia will deepen cooperation on the latter’s Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordnance (GWEO) enterprise, a project launched in 2021, focusing on the production of Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS).

Janes quotes US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin as saying, “We’re pursuing several mutually beneficial initiatives … and these include a commitment to Australia’s Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, or GMLRSs, by 2025.”

Aside from GMLRS production, Janes says the two countries will reform export control regimes and facilitate the transfer of technical data to Australia to support local future production of M795 155mm artillery rounds and identify opportunities for Australian industry to address constraints in the US industrial base.

Janes says the US and Australia reaffirmed a commitment to progress with the maintenance, repair, overhaul, and upgrade of MK-48 heavyweight torpedoes and the Standard Missile SM-2 surface-to-air missile.

Developing hypersonic engines is one US constraint that Australia can lend a helping hand to address. Asia Times reported in April 2022 about Australia’s 3D-printable hypersonic engine by Hypersonix, whose production method allows for an engine to be made in just three weeks.

Hypersonix’ engine is made of special alloys that have high resistance to corrosion, oxidation, high pressure, and high temperature. Such technology could be a game-changer for the United States’ troubled hypersonic weapons program, characterized by multiple test failures and little progress.

Also, in January 2022, Kratos, a US-based firm, and Hypersonix signed an agreement to launch the Dart AE. This hypersonic vehicle is powered by a hydrogen-fueled scramjet engine capable of multi-mission operations.

Ukraine drains US supplies

The Ukraine war has exposed significant shortfalls in the US industrial base, especially regarding munitions production. A June report by the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) notes that Ukraine fires 4,000 to 7,000 155mm artillery rounds daily, with the US capable of producing 20,000 such rounds a month.

The source notes that current US artillery-round production takes place at four government-owned, contractor-operated facilities, each performing a different function in a lean production process with multiple bottlenecks.

Given the situation where the US needs to keep Ukraine in the fight against Russia and maintain its stockpiles, the source reports that the US aims to increase production to 50,000 rounds a month by 2024 and 90,000 rounds by 2025.

The US may face a firepower gap when developing new explosives for its munitions. Asia Times reported in March that China may already have overtaken the US in producing CL-20, an explosive 40% more potent than the RDX or HMX used in US munitions since World War II.

China first produced CL-20 in 2011 and has since mass-produced the explosive, unlike the US, which uses World War II-style mixing systems and production techniques to produce most of its military explosives at one plant in Holston, Tennessee.

Newer explosives like CL-20 cannot be made with those dated methods and can only be produced in smaller amounts in chemical reactors. Although the US can produce 10 tons of CL-20 a year with its current stock of precursor chemicals, broad use of CL-20 would require upscaling production to 1,000 tons a year, with US industries needing three to five years to ramp up production.

Also, the US depends on China as the only source for six of the 12 chemical ingredients used in its explosives and propellants, bringing the security of US logistics chains into question. In the event of a conflict over Taiwan, the US may face Chinese munitions with range and firepower greater than anything in its arsenal given the latter’s development of new explosives and propellants that are more powerful and burn more efficiently.

While Australia has been stockpiling long-range firepower imported from the US to deter China, that approach may need to be revised in the long run.

A May 2022 report from the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) says the US has approved Australia’s request to purchase a wide range of munitions.

However, China’s increasing footprint in Solomon Islands may be a prelude to a more significant military presence that can cut off Australia from the US and New Zealand, precluding the possibility of resupply and making it imperative for Australia to have the indigenous production capability for such weapons.

While Australia’s industrial base can produce critical guidance systems, that would depend on which technology the US is willing to release. Also, energetics production, such as explosives and propellants, may be Australia’s most significant hurdle in indigenous precision-guided munitions production.

In a conflict scenario, the US may need all the missiles it can manufacture, leaving little to none to spare for Australia. Also, stockpiled missiles have a definite shelf life measured in years and require periodic maintenance and upgrades, which makes stockpiling US missiles an unsustainable option for Australia.